The October Surprise jobs report (UPDATED)

Obama the MagicianThe Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U-3 unemployment for September dropped to 7.8% after seasonal adjustment. Good news? No. Employment’s at 92.2% now? No. Surprising news? No, it was completely predictable.

I’m only surprised that they fudged the numbers so blatantly. I thought they’d at least try to be more subtle.

The U-3 unemployment number doesn’t tell the whole story. But don’t just take my word for it. James Pethokoukis explains:

Yes, the U-3 unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, the first time it has been below 8% since January 2009. But that’s only due to a flood of 582,000 part-time jobs.

The broader U-6 rate — which takes into account part-time workers who want full-time work and lots of discouraged workers who’ve given up looking — stayed unchanged at 14.7%. That’s a better gauge of the true unemployment rate and state of the American labor market.

The labor force is collapsing. Confused? Look at it this way.

8% unemployment
8% unemployment

8% unemployment (technically)
8% unemployment

When the BLS plays with the number of people it designates as “discouraged workers,” then you see results like today’s report of 7.8% unemployment. The Obama BLS is cooking the books to make Obama look better.

Scroll back up to the top of this page. Look underneath the banner for a link labeled “Unemployment 101” and read what’s there a few times until you have a good grasp on the accounting tricks you’re being fed by the Obama BLS.

12:05 Update: Yet more accounting tricks, this time with government jobs vs. private sector jobs.

12:25 Update: The total number of unemployed and underemployed people reveals another aspect of the BLS’ deception. Look how it jumped today.

12:55 PM Update: They forgot to cook the rest of the books to hide the trickery.

1:10 PM Update: Busted. Caught red-handed. Utter bullshit.

1:15 PM Update: Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

4:05 PM Update: If the economy really created 873,000 jobs last month, why isn’t Obama crowing it from the rooftops? Because he knows it’s utter bullshit, that’s why.

4:20 PM: Nope, nothing fishy going on. Nothing to see here. Move along. The first positive news for September employment among 20-24 year olds — ever — is completely legit.

BLS fraudulent September 2012 report

Sure, every other September sees these college-aged kids going, y’know, back to college. But not in the 4th Year of Our Lord Barack Obama. Forward, comrades! All is well!

Wanna buy some sweet oceanfront property in Arizona? I can sell it to ya cheap.

Now that Romney dominated the first debate…

Barack Obama… Barack Obama is going to get meaner and uglier. He’s desperate. His record on jobs and debt sucks, his foreign policy is weak and collapsing before our eyes, he’s a pathological narcissist, and he’s been living in a warm bubble of adoring flattery for four years so he’s unaccustomed to being challenged.

He’s suddenly feeling backed into a corner, so he’s going to revert to what he knows: Alinsky tactics. He’ll play the race card repeatedly, he’ll try to stoke the fires of class warfare, he’ll pit women against men … anything to hold onto power.

Tonight’s debate was a rout. The upcoming VP debate between Paul Ryan and Joe Biden will be a massacre. If the Obama campaign doesn’t go 100% venomous before then, it definitely will afterward.

Hold on to your hats. It’s about to get very, very ugly.

11:55 PM Update: The chance of unilateral US bombing of Libya, Syria, or some other Third World crap hole in the next two weeks just rose to 99.999999% or so.

Unemployment October Surprise? (UPDATED)

20121003-111419.jpgOct 5, 2012 Update: And just like clockwork, they’ve cooked the books again.

Don’t be surprised if August’s unemployment rate gets quietly revised from 8.1% to 8.0% this week. That would set up a more plausible-looking report of 7.9% unemployment for September, since a drop from 8.1% to 7.9% right before the election would look too suspicious.

The Obama Administration can continue to fudge the unemployment numbers by playing around with the number of “discouraged workers,” who have stopped looking for jobs and no longer count as “unemployed” in the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports.

If that happens, watch for a last-minute blitz of ads from Obama’s campaign trumpeting that unemployment is finally under 8%, thanks to Dear Leader’s wonderful awesomeness. Low-information voters won’t look past the surface to see that the jobs numbers have been cooked, and some might decide to vote for Obama as a result.

Keep an eye peeled.

Who votes for Barack Obama?

If you don’t get out there and vote against Barack Obama, this bunch is going to put him back in the Oval Office. He’s not only glad they’re going to vote for him, he shares their views.

If you’re still undecided, or if you think Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are two sides of the same coin, do yourself a favor and go see the movie “2016: Obama’s America” and judge for yourself based on Barack Obama’s own spoken and written words:

If you refuse to do that, I have one last suggestion for you.

Proposed GOP rule change would neuter the party’s base (Updated)

If the Rules Committee has its way at the Republican National Convention, the party’s presidential nominee will be able to substitute delegates of his or her choice for the delegates from each of the states and territories duly chosen by the local parties.

Here’s the e-mail I sent to Ohio’s two representatives on the Rules Committee.

Mr. Bennett,

I’m writing to you in your capacity as one of Ohio’s two delegates on the 2012 RNC Rules Committee. I am a registered Republican in [city redacted], OH. I’m also a grassroots conservative activist & blogger. This major problem caught my attention today:

I OPPOSE the rules change that will give future presidential campaigns control over who gets to be a delegate (current RULE 15, but being renumbered to 16) and I OPPOSE the new RULE 12 which allows the RNC to change the rules at any time between conventions.

The grassroots members of the GOP should select the delegates, not the party’s nominee. I urge you to sign the minority reports on Rules 15 & 12.

We are paying attention back here.

Mr. Alo H. Konsen
[address redacted]
Twitter: @akonsen

If you’re a conservative Republican and want to take action before the Rules Committee slides this change into effect at 2 PM on Tuesday the 28th, you’d better get moving. Follow that link to Michelle Malkin’s site up above and read the whole post. You can find your state’s two delegates on the Rules Committee here.

Yes, it’s annoying. The RINOs are counting on you being too annoyed, busy, and distracted to resist their power grab. Just copy and adapt my message to your needs and let them know you oppose cutting the grassroots out of the nominating process. Two e-mails from you can yank them back to responsible behavior.

8/28 2:30 PM Update: Bob Bennett (@RTBGOP) just responded. This just hit my inbox.

Thank you for your email. The good news is that with your help we have been able to kill the changes you objected to. The rule would not have had impact in Ohio, however, as usual Ohio’s voice and leadership was sought and you helped provide it.

Tomorrow the full rules committee will eliminate the change in the rules regarding the delegate selection process and thus eliminate the need for the minority report. Your point was well taken.

Thank you again for your email.

8/29 Update: The grassroots have been stomped by the GOP establishment. Again.

Attention, casual voters

If you still aren’t paying serious attention to politics this late in the game, do everyone a favor this November 6th.

Don’t vote.

You’re not competent enough to make an informed decision either way, whether you’re a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent. You can no more make an informed decision on who should run the country than you could make wise financial decisions with a ouija board. You will vote with emotion instead of reason, swayed by bumper stickers, three-word slogans, lying ads, and screaming TV pundits. You deserve a voice on national policy like I deserve a voice in any NFL team’s play-calling, or like your drunk Uncle Hugo deserves to sit at the controls of a passenger airliner.

Sit this one out. Do whatever it is that occupies your time, but don’t get involved in how your government impacts your neighbors’ lives. You don’t know enough about what’s at stake to choose intelligently between the options presented.

Want to vote? Then you have obligations to meet first. Shut up. Listen. Learn. Turn off the latest episode of The Jersey Shore, put down your copy of People Magazine, and stop wasting time on Learn how to spot bullshit by understanding logical fallacies, the most common propaganda/advertising techniques, and the standard statistical trickery pushed by politicians and the media. Memorize who your representatives are (find your Zip+4 and use it to search for your politicians here). Read the Declaration of Independence, the U.S. Constitution, and their competitors. Get a basic grasp of world & US history. Get comfortable with all of that, and then keep up with political news for at least a year.

casual voterPull your head out of your ass before you presume to push the government in one direction or another, because this isn’t some game. You’re not choosing the next American Idol. Your choices profoundly affect the liberty and livelihood of everyone around you, including those who’ve done the right thing by taking the time to get informed. This election will determine whether America survives as a representative republic or slides into the soft tyranny experienced by most of the rest of the world. There isn’t enough time before Election Day for you to get up to speed anymore, if you aren’t there already. So swallow your precious pride, quietly admit to yourself that you’ve neglected to do your civic duty, and skip this election.

If you do cast a vote anyway, even though you can’t be bothered to “follow all of that boring political stuff,” then don’t tell me about it.

Because I’m going to punch you in the mouth the next time you come within arm’s reach, you arrogant and recklessly destructive twit.

Congress is the problem

Ever wondered why Congress doesn’t work? Think about this: when America was founded, the average Congressman represented 30,000 constituents. Today, it’s roughly 700,000. To make the U.S. House as responsive to all 300+ million of us as it used to be, it would need to grow from its current size of 425 Representatives.

It would need to have roughly 10,000 members.

We have a problem, folks.

Pack the Supreme Court

Want to reign in the activist tendencies of the statists* on the U.S. Supreme Court? Take a look at current federal law to see the answer:

The Supreme Court of the United States shall consist of a Chief Justice of the United States and eight associate justices, any six of whom shall constitute a quorum.

Elect conservative Republicans — and tractable RINOs — to the House and Senate, evict Barack Obama from the White House, and change this law. Increase the size of the Court to 11 or 13 justices, then fill the vacancies with constitutionalists (those who interpret a law by looking to the commonly-understood meaning of a law’s text).

Problem solved.

* the four leftists plus the squishes, Kennedy and Roberts

The Sayonara Zone

How bad must things get for a first term president (or the nominee of a two-term president’s party) before he’s in serious danger of losing his next election? How can we quantify “bad?”

I decided to scatterplot the presidential approval ratings tracked by Gallup against the infamous “Misery Index” — U-6 Unemployment plus the current annual inflation rate — culled from statistics collected by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data points I plotted were from the last dates surveyed before each Election Day. Here’s what I found.

The Sayonara Zone

Uh-oh. I’d say President Obama is solidly inside The Sayonara Zone on the chart.

How thin is your bubble?

Do you live a sheltered, cocooned life, surrounded by nothing but like-minded people whose experiences only differ from yours in trivial ways? Author Charles Murray contends in his latest book that more and more of white Americans do indeed live inside a fairly thick bubble. He’ll be speaking on that subject at The Heritage Foundation next week, and the folks at posted a thought-provoking online quiz in advance of the lecture:

Included in Murray’s book is a 25-question quiz that has become a popular online test to gauge whether you live in a social and cultural bubble. First published by PBS NewsHour to “help readers determine how thick their own bubble may be,” we’re embedding it below in advance of Murray’s speech at Heritage.

Here’s my score.

How thin is my bubble?

Mona Del Hirst, cybercriminal?

Mona Del Hirst may claim she was just engaged in “performance art” at 2225 South 500 East, Salt Lake City, Utah on March 22, 2012 when she hacked into Tea Party activist Anna Jones’ Facebook account and helped her “art loving” progressive friends impersonate Miss Jones. However, she was possibly engaged in a crime under Utah law.

Title 76 Utah Criminal Code
Chapter 6
Section 703.   Computer crimes and penalties.

(1) A person who without authorization gains or attempts to gain access to and alters, damages, destroys, discloses, or modifies any computer, computer network, computer property, computer system, computer program, computer data or software, and thereby causes damage to another, or obtains money, property, information, or a benefit for any person without legal right, is guilty of:
(a) a class B misdemeanor when:
(i) the damage caused or the value of the money, property, or benefit obtained or sought to be obtained is less than $500; or
(ii) the information obtained is not confidential;

(b) a class A misdemeanor when the damage caused or the value of the money, property, or benefit obtained or sought to be obtained is or exceeds $500 but is less than $1,500;
(c) a third degree felony when the damage caused or the value of the money, property, or benefit obtained or sought to be obtained is or exceeds $1,500 but is less than $5,000;
(d) a second degree felony when the damage caused or the value of the money, property, or benefit obtained or sought to be obtained is or exceeds $5,000; or
(e) a third degree felony when:
(i) the property or benefit obtained or sought to be obtained is a license or entitlement;
(ii) the damage is to the license or entitlement of another person; or
(iii) the information obtained is confidential; or
(iv) in gaining access the person breaches or breaks through a security system.

(a) Except as provided in Subsection (2)(b), a person who intentionally or knowingly and without authorization gains or attempts to gain access to a computer, computer network, computer property, or computer system under circumstances not otherwise constituting an offense under this section is guilty of a class B misdemeanor.
(b) Notwithstanding Subsection (2)(a), a retailer that uses an electronic product identification or tracking system, or other technology to identify, track, or price goods is not guilty of a violation of Subsection (2)(a) if the equipment designed to read the electronic product identification or tracking system data and used by the retailer to identify, track, or price goods is located within the retailer’s location.

(3) A person who uses or knowingly allows another person to use any computer, computer network, computer property, or computer system, program, or software to devise or execute any artifice or scheme to defraud or to obtain money, property, services, or other things of value by false pretenses, promises, or representations, is guilty of an offense based on the value of the money, property, services, or things of value, in the degree set forth in Subsection 76-10-1801(1).
(4) A person who intentionally or knowingly and without authorization, interferes with or interrupts computer services to another authorized to receive the services is guilty of a class A misdemeanor.
(5) It is an affirmative defense to Subsections (1) and (2) that a person obtained access or attempted to obtain access in response to, and for the purpose of protecting against or investigating, a prior attempted or successful breach of security of a computer, computer network, computer property, computer system whose security the person is authorized or entitled to protect, and the access attempted or obtained was no greater than reasonably necessary for that purpose.

If Ms. Hirst is found guilty of a Class B misdemeanor, she can be jailed for up to six months. For a Class A misdemeanor, the jail term can be up to a year. For a third degree felony, she can be jailed for up to five years. I hope she earned enough from her little “performance” to cover her attorney’s fees.

The smug “patrons” who participated in her crime “art” had better hope they can’t be identified by prosecutors.

The do-nothing Senate

The House of Representatives (242 Republicans, 192 Democrats) has passed a budget every year and sent it to the Senate. The Senate (53 Democrats, 47 Republicans) has refused to pass a budget for 1,057 days and counting. Passing a budget in the Senate requires 51 votes.  Remind me again: which one is the do-nothing party?

Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) sure is a useful tool.

Obama and Reid

But hey, to hear our own Sherrod Brown (D-OH) tell it, passing a budget isn’t all that meaningful.

Who was Derrick Bell?

Professor Derrick Bell was one of the earliest and most strident advocates of Critical Race Theory:

Bell believed then, as he does to this day, that whites would support civil rights protections for blacks only if those protections would also promote white self-interest and social status. Since Bell maintains that racial minorities are a permanently oppressed caste — and that racism is a normal, permanent aspect of American life — he reasons that equality before the law is unfair to blacks, whose moral claims are superior to those of whites. He has endorsed a journal dedicated to the “abolition of whiteness,” called Race Traitor, whose motto is “Treason to the white race is loyalty to humanity.”

According to Professor Bell and his fellow Critical Race theorists, existing legal structures are, like American society at large, racist in their very construction. Critical Race Theory suggests that to combat this “institutional racism,” oppressed racial groups have both the right and the duty to decide for themselves, which laws are valid and are worth observing. Critical Race Theory also promotes the use of storytelling narratives in law-review articles to better reflect the “oral traditions” of black experience. Bell has used the technique of placing legal and social commentary into the mouths of invented characters extensively in his writings. While acknowledging that this “style of storytelling” is “less rigorous than the doctrine-laden, citation-heavy law review pieces,” he employs it nonetheless.

He was also a mentor to a young Barack Obama, who idolized the aging racist and organized at least one student demonstration supporting him while the future president was a law student. Selectively-edited footage of that demonstration leaked today, but the raw footage will air tonight thanks to Andrew Breitbart’s happy warriors.


3/8 Update: More on Bell and his past.

3/8 Update 2: Well, look what we have here.

The Occupy movement vs. the police

Chief of Police Joel Shults of Adams State College has a point.

The Occupy movement was met with great restraint by political leaders all over the country until push literally came to shove. And guess who got to do the shoving? That’s right — your friendly neighborhood armed government agents. Mayors and college presidents and governors have their private armies to do what begging, negotiating, and persuasion cannot — the police officer. Why don’t mayors send in a phalanx of social workers or public relations staff? How about the street cleaning guys or the city engineer’s office? Are the interns in the mail room so busy they can’t go down to the park and get some trespassers to move along? Or hey, get the firefighters — they have uniforms and everybody loves firefighters!

Why the police? One word: force. We have the license to hurt. Gosh, that sounds mean — and on video, it looks even meaner.

The thought process goes like this: person violates law, politician looks the other way, violator decides to continue to violate law, politician decides law should be enforced and warns violator, violator decides to continue to break law, politician orders police to enforce law, police confront violator, violator still breaks law, police exercise force to gain compliance, violator screams bloody murder, politician investigates cops for using force.

Since in all likelihood the Occupy movement will be back once the weather warms up and the Democrat Party needs their help ginning up the leftist base for the election, Chief Shults has an interesting idea for police caught in the middle.  Follow the link above to find out what it is.

Since the Occupy movement is joined at the hip with the labor movement, I find the whole situation darkly funny.  Police officers tend to be members of unions themselves.  Government employee unions are some of the most corrupt and dangerous organizations in the country, and now they’ll be cracking each other’s skulls while advancing “solidarity” and the re-election of their Democrat friends.